2.2 Estimation of COVID-19 Vaccine and Related Supplies

A.    Estimating COVID-19 Vaccine Requirements

• Most of the vaccines on the pipeline are two doses per target within a 2-4 weeks interval.
• Vaccine wastage rate of 15% will be used to calculate the total amount of vaccine per target.
• Vaccine wastage factor = 100/ [100-vaccine wastage rate]
• Example: For COVID-19 vaccine with wastage rate of 15% the wastage factor will be:
• Wastage factor=100/ [100-15] =1.18.
• This means that 1.18 times more vaccine should be ordered so as to cover the estimated 15% vaccine wastage.

EXAMPLE: 1

To vaccinate the first 20% of the total population in the initial phase, the total quantity of COVID-19 vaccines required with 10 dose vial presentation will be;

Target population: 20% X Total population (112,078,730) = 22,417,546

Vaccine requirement = 22,417,546 X 2 doses X 1.18 = 52,905,408 doses

If a COVID-19 vaccine supplied is 10 doses per vial, to get the number of vials of Covid-19 Vaccines required we divide the number of doses required by 10 using the formula:

Number of vials = Number of doses required/10 = 5,290,540 vials.